🪤 Why We Crave the Things That Hurt Us
Overcoming the pavlovian temptations of bad decisions
For well over a century, psychologists have talked about two important types of learning that determine how we engage with the world around us:
Pavlovian learning: learning by association that a particular object or event predicts a pleasurable outcome
Instrumental learning: learning by reward and punishment that some behaviors are worth repeating while others are not
In many cases, these two types of learning go hand-in-hand and support consistent behavior. But occasionally, a mismatch creates a behavioral challenge.
For example, when we crave a particular food or drink despite it reliably causing us health problems, we’re expressing our vulnerability to previously established pavlovian associations. After developing a sensitive stomach, we might still crave the taste of beer or cheeseburgers even if we know they cause us significant discomfort after consuming. The pavlovian pull of these delights often overpowers the instrumental learning that suggests we should avoid them.
Following what Nassim Taleb has referred to as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, researchers in a new paper are calling our risky tendency to take actions with negative consequences the “picking pennies bias”.
Their research study looks into why this bias is so common, and why one widespread explanation for it—that we’re not fully aware of the negative consequences—is entirely wrong.
😵💫 Why we stay in the path of the steamroller
In a study published in 2024, researchers tested our notable willingness to embrace costly actions.
They developed a simple video game in which an archer shoots at a target and participants have to guess whether the arrow will hit or miss. Each time they are correct, they gain $2, but each incorrect guess comes with a $40 loss.
Before starting the game, participants are made aware of two types of archer: 1) a master archer who hits the target almost every time and has a positive payoff overall, 2) an apprentice archer who hits the target around 80% of the time but has a negative payoff overall due to the big losses with each miss. The performance profiles of the two types of archer are clearly shown to participants and explained before the game begins.
So how often do people bet on the apprentice archer despite knowing about the negative expected value—the negative payoff overall—for making that bet?
Across multiple versions of the experiment, over 50% of participants showed a picking pennies bias, choosing to bet on the apprentice archer while fully aware of the negative expected value of each bet. Of those participants, 78% took the costly bet in three or more sessions of the game.
But why? It wasn’t simply the thrill of gambling, since when people could lock in their bet or no-bet decisions in advance, they were much more likely to commit to no-bets. Instead, the researchers put this behavior down to what they call “craving by design”.
When we engage in a behavior that frequently rewards us, we develop a Pavlovian craving for that behavior. This includes contexts in which the behavior has a negative expected value overall due to big losses. Even when we’re fully aware that a particular decision is likely to hurt us in the long term, we feel an urge to keep making that decision because of the rewarding associations we’ve developed. In front of a slot machine, we can’t help but press the big, shiny button despite knowing the house always wins.
The researchers found this kind of effect among knowledgable financial traders too. Options sellers typically have a positive return on selling options overall, but the researchers found an exception to this rule. When they looked only at cheap options sales (<$1), they found a negative payoff overall, meaning that traders offered these options at an overall loss. Despite the net losses, these options have a particularly high reward probability, so they reinforce a strong craving to continue selling them. This craving overwhelms a trader’s better judgment, so they agree to make losing bets.
You might not be involved in financial trading or betting on archery, but this kind of behavioral pattern could be appearing in other aspects of your life. If you can recall a time when you’ve acted on impulse knowing it’s a bad decision, consider whether pavlovian associations could be to blame.
⭐️ Takeaway tips
#1. Beware of small wins and pavlovian cravings
Repeated small wins—e.g. the rewarding taste of an unhealthy snack or the tempting excitement of a pleasure purchase—can blind you to the looming threat of large losses. When actions have a negative payoff in the long term, it’s rational to avoid them. But when we develop a craving for an irrational action, it’s not so easy. Think of an example in your own life where this craving pattern might be at play, and come up with a defensive strategy to overcome the craving next time it emerges. Or—even better—find ways to avoid the craving in the first place.
#2. Don’t ignore the facts
It’s common for our feelings, instincts, or desires to run in the opposite direction to where the facts are pointing. Sometimes, it’s ok to trust our gut and just enjoy the moment. But it’s also possible that letting our emotions override our rationality leads to personal losses we later regret. Try to develop a strong awareness of what the facts are and what the evidence around you is saying. If you ultimately decide to take a risky plunge when faced with negative expected value, do it with an embrace of the risks rather than pretending they don’t exist.
#3. We are animals
We frequently like to define ourselves as separate from nature. Instead of saying “we are nature”, we typically “visit nature” to observe “the animals”. Research like that described above is a great reminder that there isn’t much separating us. We really are just animals chasing shiny objects, even when those shiny objects are ready to ensnare us. We can always find ways to enhance our rationality and reduce the risks in our lives, but in the end, it can also be comforting to remember that we’re merely animals living for a brief moment on a beautiful planet.
“Bell, book and candle shall not drive me back,
When gold and silver becks me to come on.”
~ William Shakespeare
I love it so much.